Midterm General Election Update

The late breaking “red wave” – forecasted by pollsters and pundits alike and detailed in our last release – did not materialize, especially at the state level where nearly all of the key legislative chambers and gubernatorial elections on our watch list broke in favor of Democrats. The groundswell of momentum for the Democratic Party reported in the summer and earlier this fall appears to have continued through election day.

Republican underperformance at the federal level – paired with redistricting that made several state legislative seats competitive – boosted Democrats in several swing legislative chambers across the country. The exceptions may be Nevada, where at least one chamber may flip to Republican, and Arizona – where the GOP may hold onto either or both chambers. Election ballots are still being counted to determine the final legislative chamber control in states like Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Compiled below are all the gubernatorial races and legislative chambers that have been reported as final as of midday on November 9.

Once the dust settles, Orrick’s Public Policy Group will provide a third and final midterm election installment analyzing the election results and the forecasted impact on macro state policy initiatives in 2023.

Key Takeaways

Gubernatorial Races:

• Democrat incumbents held on to battleground seats in Wisconsin, Kansas, Michigan, and Maine. As widely anticipated, the Democrats flipped Maryland and Massachusetts in open seat races.
• The lone GOP governor pickup may ultimately be Nevada, where incumbent Governor Steve Sisolak (D) is trailing Republican challenger Joe Lombardo.
• Arizona and Oregon’s gubernatorial seat remains too close to call.

Legislative Chambers:

• The Michigan legislature flipped to Democrat, giving the party trifecta control of the state for the first time since 1988. This is also the first time the Democrats have won a majority in both legislative chambers since 1982. The Senate became more competitive after electoral maps were approved last year by the state’s bipartisan citizen redistricting commission.
• Democrats flipped the Minnesota Senate, delivering a Democratic trifecta in Minnesota for the first time in nearly ten years.
• Democrats protected the veto power for Democratic Governors Tony Evers in Wisconsin and Roy Cooper in North Carolina.
• The Democrats defended majorities that Republicans targeted to flip in Colorado, Maine, New Mexico, and Washington.
• Republicans may flip at least one legislative chamber in Nevada and may hold on to both chamber majorities in Arizona.

Abortion Rights Ballot Measures & Exit Polls:

• According to Politico’s reporting of exit polls, 27% of voters picked abortion as “mattering most in deciding” their vote, coming in second of five choices.
• Voters in California, Michigan and Vermont all chose to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitutions.
• Kentucky is likely to vote down a constitutional amendment that would have restricted a right to abortion, or to abortion funding (“no” votes lead by 4% with 91% reporting.)