4 minute read | September.23.2025
On September 9, 2025, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the Trump administration’s appeal of an August 29, 2025, decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit affirming a lower court’s order striking down the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a basis for imposing tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners. Briefing begins this month and the Supreme Court scheduled oral arguments for November 5, 2025. As Orrick wrote last week, a decision is expected to follow quickly after. The case carries enormous economic implications for the federal government and for U.S. businesses that import foreign goods.
If the Supreme Court affirms the appeals court’s decision, the federal government could be forced to refund hundreds of billions of dollars of tariffs to U.S. businesses. Some investors are betting on this outcome and are offering to purchase tariff refund claims from businesses. There are reports that certain distressed investors have closed on refund claims already and are offering as much as 20-30 percent of the total amount of tariffs paid.
The Supreme Court may hold that some, all or none of the IEEPA tariffs are unlawful. If the government is forced to refund tariffs, it is unclear what the mechanics and timing would be. There is no statutorily provided process or timeline that would govern how a tariff refund program would be administered. The courts could dictate the eligibility requirements and deadlines for refunding tariff payments. Or they may simply allow importers to rely on conventional, ad hoc administrative refund processes.
The IEEPA tariffs will remain in place pending the Supreme Court’s ruling. In the meantime, there are steps that importers and prospective claim purchasers can take now to maximize the likelihood that they will receive refunds if the Supreme Court rules against the government.
If you have questions about tariff refund claims or other tariff-related issues, please reach out to one of the authors or your Orrick contact.