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Amy Pasacreta, a lawyer on Orrick's restructuring team, said they have seen interest jump in this opaque market since the decision came down, while prices have surged toward the 40-50% range after earlier trading at much lower levels.
Orrick started seeing demand for refund claims soon after tariffs were implemented in April.
The court case involved two types of emergency tariffs: those aimed at curbing fentanyl imports and a broader range of ‘reciprocal' tariffs. The fentanyl tariffs had been viewed as more likely to get upheld by some analysts and had sold for less. Pasacreta said the two categories have converged since Friday.
Before the decision, buyers were paying 16-17% for fentanyl tariff claims and 26-28% for reciprocal tariff claims.
“The reason that we’re not seeing higher (prices) is because there is still the uncertainty,” said Pasacreta. “This administration has indicated that they’re going to fight the refunds.”
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Before oral arguments, says Amy Pasacreta, who is of counsel at Orrick, investors were buying the right to the reciprocal tariff refunds for cents on the dollar. As of Friday, that was hovering closer to 40 cents to 50 cents.
"Will the court of international trade say refunds are the remedy, and if they do, will the refunds get repealed? Then, what is the timing?" she says.
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Amy Pasacreta, a lawyer on Orrick's restructuring team, said there is significant uncertainty regarding refunds.
Pasacreta said they expect new sellers and buyers to enter the market now, given that there is "a greater likelihood that importers may eventually receive refunds.” They also expect claim pricing to rise after Friday's decision.
“We've had inbounds on people looking to find claims to buy, and we've also discussed with some sellers (importers) who were in the process of speaking to people before today's decision, and sort of what it means for them,” Pasacreta said.
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Known as "special situations" trades, these deals are attractive to investors because the assets are uncorrelated to broader markets and offer potential upside if the court strikes down the tariffs as unconstitutional, two legal sources who are working with buyers and sellers in the market told Reuters.
"There's a very well-established market...where there are buyers...who are willing to provide instant liquidity to parties that are uncertain as to when, if ever, they'll be able to monetize these claims," said Raniero D'Aversa, partner and chair of law firm Orrick's restructuring team.
Orrick started seeing demand for refund claims soon after tariffs were implemented in April. Many buyers are currently quoting 16-17% for fentanyl tariff claims and 26-28% for reciprocal tariff claims, said Amy Pasacreta, of counsel, on Orrick's restructuring team.
"Some [are] saying, 'you know what, I'd rather get my 10, 20, 30 cents because Supreme Court could very well say they're constitutional.' And if that's the case, at least I get a little something recouped," said Pasacreta.