Midterm General Election Update

Introduction:

Since 1922, the party that controls the White House has lost state legislative seats in the first midterm election cycle. Historically, Democratic presidents lose an average of 388 state legislative seats, and Republican presidents lose an average of 345 state legislative seats. Paired with the current political environment, it is no surprise Democrats are facing an uphill battle in their pursuit to flip GOP legislative chambers with slim majorities, like Arizona and Michigan. Conversely, experts are dubious about the environment favoring the GOP enough to jeopardize Democratic control of legislative chambers in Colorado and Nevada.

Notably, the midterms will be the first election cycle since all 50 states finalized their new congressional and state maps triggered by the 2020 redistricting process. States such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Colorado are considered more competitive since redistricting. In particular, Democrats feel bullish about flipping the Michigan House and Senate where Republicans currently maintain narrow majorities and have perpetually lost seats since 2014.  Republicans see an opportunity to flip party control in the Minnesota House, which would be the first since 2018, although Democrats believe the redistricting process has increased their chances of retaining control of the chamber.

Republicans currently have a trifecta—meaning control over the House, Senate, and Governor seat—in 23 states. Democrats have a trifecta in 14 states, and there are divided governments in 13 states. In November, Democrats are considered vulnerable to losing (i) their trifectas in four states (CO, ME, NV and OR), and (ii) three gubernatorial races (ME, NV, and OR ). Republicans, by contrast, are considered vulnerable to losing their trifecta in four states (AZ, GA, NH, and TX), with Arizona being the most vulnerable at the gubernatorial and legislative level.

Gubernatorial Races to Watch:

Governorships are currently split with Republicans in control of 28 seats and Democrats in control of 22 seats. There are 36 gubernatorial elections in 2022. Democrats are focused on defending five seats—Kansas, Maine, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Oregon—of which the first four are the most vulnerable, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report.

Meanwhile, Arizona—where Republican Governor Doug Ducey cannot seek reelection due to term limits—is considered one of the most competitive races on the map. The election pits Trump-backed Republican Kari Lake against Arizona’s Democratic secretary of state Katie Hobbs. Republicans are unlikely to be successful in defending the open seats in Maryland and Massachusetts, which were previously held by two-term GOP incumbents, Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker, respectively. This will result in Democrats picking up trifectas in Maryland and Massachusetts.

A map of likely gubernatorial election outcomes is below, with Republicans expected to control 17 seats, Democrats to control 14 seats, and 5 seats considered toss-ups:

Legislative Chambers to Watch:

In November, 88 of 99 legislative chambers will hold general elections. Of these, Republicans currently exercise majorities in 55 of the 88 chambers, or 63%. Uniquely, Alaska and Minnesota are the two states in this election cycle with split party control between their two legislative chambers – and they are projected to be the most vulnerable to flip to full GOP-controlled legislatures in November.

The political composition at the legislative level makes one dynamic abundantly clear: political polarization is at its strongest in state legislatures, and the current political winds do not suggest there will be material changes to party control in state legislatures, save for a few battleground states. Most of the projected changes will come from both parties chipping away at the opposing party’s majorities in perennial swing states experiencing competitive “top-of-the-ticket” races in November.

These dynamics will be most pronounced in the following chambers:

Republicans are doubling down to flip the Minnesota House, bolstered by their success in maintaining control of the highly targeted state senate during the 2020 elections. Republicans are also poised to flip the Alaska House and have made significant investments to win back seats, if not majorities, in the Colorado Senate, Maine Senate, and Nevada Senate. Democrat stronghold legislatures considered most vulnerable to losing seats – as opposed to flipping control – include Illinois, Oregon, and Washington.

On the flipside, Democrats feel most confident about the Michigan legislature, where Republicans in both chambers are barely holding onto shrinking majorities. Arizona’s House and Senate are also viewed as prime pickup opportunities for Democrats, where both chambers have a one-seat majority and are vulnerable to highly competitive statewide races for U.S. Senate, Governor and Attorney General. In addition, Democrats feel more confident than ever about retaining control of the Minnesota House, despite historical trends, as a result of redistricting. Republican chambers most vulnerable to losing seats include Georgia, Pennsylvania, Texas, and New Hampshire.

A map depicting the likely and vulnerable Republican and Democratic state political trifectas and toss-up scenarios:

Ballot Measures:

More than 131 statewide ballot measures in 37 states have been certified for the November election. This year’s ballot initiatives are focused primarily on abortion rights, online sports betting, requirements for initiating a ballot initiative, and the repeal of language related to enslavement or servitude.

Abortion rights have taken on an increased significance and became a top focus in the midterms after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June. Five states—California, Kentucky, Montana, Vermont, and Michigan—will consider ballot measures that seek to either restrict or enshrine abortion rights in November, which is the most on record. Earlier this year, voters in Kansas rejected a measure that would have restricted access to an abortion in the state.

State	Snapshot	House	Senate	Governor
Alabama	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 73-28	Republican supermajority 27-8	Republican likely to win
Alaska	Republicans are expected to maintain control of both chambers	Republican majority 21-15-3	Republican supermajority 13-7	Republican likely to win
Arizona	Democrats would need only 2 seats to flip both the House and Senate	Republican majority 31-29	Republican supermajority 16-14	Republican incumbent is term-limited; toss-up race
Arkansas	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 78-22	Republican supermajority 27-7	Republican likely to win
California	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 60-19	Democrat supermajority 31-9	Democrat likely to win
Colorado	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 41-24	Democrat majority, but considered somewhat vulnerable 21-14	Democrat likely to win
Connecticut	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 97-54	Democrat majority 23-13	Democrat likely to win
Delaware	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 26-15	Democrat supermajority 14-7	Democrat-controlled; no race
Florida	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 76-42	Republican supermajority 23-16	Republican likely to win
Georgia	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 103-76	Republican supermajority 34-22	Republican likely to win
Hawaii	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 47-4	Democrat supermajority 24-1	Democrat likely to win
Idaho	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 58-12	Republican supermajority 27-7	Republican likely to win
Illinois	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 73-45	Democrat supermajority 41-18	Democrat likely to win
Indiana	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 71-29	Republican supermajority 39-11	Republican-controlled; no race
Iowa	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 60-40	Republican supermajority 32-18	Republican likely to win
Kansas	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 86-39	Republican supermajority 29-11	Democrat-controlled; toss-up race
Kentucky	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 75-25	Republican supermajority 30-8	Democrat-controlled; no race
Louisiana	There are no races this year	Republican supermajority 68-34	Republican supermajority 26-11	Democrat-controlled; no race
Maine	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 77-63	Democrat majority, but Republicans hoping to flip control 22-13	Democrat-controlled; toss-up race, but leans Democrat
Maryland	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 99-42	Democrat supermajority 32-15	Republican-controlled; Democrats expected to pick up this seat
Massachusetts	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 125-27	Democrat supermajority 37-3	Republican-controlled; Democrats expected to pick up this seat
Michigan	Republicans are expected to maintain majority control of both chambers	Republican majority 56-53	Republican majority 22-16	Democrat likely to win
Minnesota	Control of the House is a toss-up	Democrat majority 69-63	Republican-majority 34-31	Democrat likely to win
Mississippi	There are no races this year	Republican supermajority 76-42	Republican supermajority 36-16	Republican-controlled; no race
Missouri	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 107-48	Republican supermajority 24-10	Republican-controlled; no race
Montana	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 67-33	Republican supermajority 31-19	Republican-controlled; no race
Nebraska	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of the Senate	Nebraska is the only state that is unicameral. Republicans have a supermajority of 32-17		Republican likely to win
Nevada	Democrats are expected to maintain majority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 25-16	Democrat majority, but considered a toss-up 11-9	Democrat-controlled; toss-up race
New Hampshire	Republicans are expected to maintain majority control of both chambers	Republican majority 203-179	Republican majority 13-10	Republican likely to win
New Jersey	There are no races this year	Democrat majority 46-33	Democrat majority 24-16	Democrat-controlled; no race
New Mexico	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 44-24	Democrat supermajority 26-15	Democrat-controlled; Republicans hoping to flip this seat
New York	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 106-43	Democrat supermajority 42-20	Democrat likely to win
North Carolina	Republicans are expected to maintain majority control of both chambers	Republican majority 69-51	Republican majority 27-22	Democrat-controlled; no race
North Dakota	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 80-14	Republican supermajority 40-7	Republican-controlled; no race
Ohio	Republicans are expected to maintain control of both chambers	Republican supermajority	Republican supermajority	Republican likely to win
Oklahoma	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 82-18	Republican supermajority 39-9	Republican likely to win
Oregon	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat majority 36-23	Democrat supermajority 18-11	Democrat-controlled; toss-up race
Pennsylvania	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican majority 113-89	Republican majority 28-21	Democrat likely to win
Rhode Island	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 65-10	Democrat supermajority 33-5	Democrat likely to win
South Carolina	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 81-43	Republican supermajority 30-16	Republican likely to win
South Dakota	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 62-8	Republican supermajority 32-3	Republican likely to win
Tennessee	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 72-24	Republican supermajority 27-6	Republican likely to win
Texas	Republicans are expected to maintain majority control of both chambers	Republican majority 83-65	Republican majority 18-13	Republican likely to win
Utah	Republicans are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 58-17	Republican supermajority 23-6	Republican-controlled; no race
Vermont	Democrats are expected to maintain supermajority control of both chambers	Democrat supermajority 91-46-7	Democrat supermajority 21-7-2	Republican likely to win
Virginia	There are no races this year	Republican-controlled 52-48	Democrat-controlled 21-19	Republican-controlled; no race
Washington	Democrats are expected to maintain majority control of both chambers	Democrat majority 57-41	Democrat majority 29-20	Democrat-controlled; no race
West Virginia	Republicans are expected to maintain control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 77-22	Republican supermajority 23-11	Republican-controlled; no race
Wisconsin	Republicans are expected to maintain control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 57-38	Republican supermajority 21-12	Democrat-controlled; considered a toss-up race
Wyoming	Republicans are expected to maintain control of both chambers	Republican supermajority 51-7	Republican supermajority 28-2	Republican likely to win

 

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